Monday, March 7, 2011

The implications of Predictive Analytics

After the concept of "Business Intelligence" has been milked for what it's worth, now the latest hype is "Predictive Analytics".

Consider this, the majority of stock trading transactions are being conducted by algorithms, which leverage a form of predictive analytics. Some of the major fluctuations in recent years have been attributed to these algorithms all "running for the exit" at the same time, as most of them use similar logic.

Also, have you ever used your GPS navigator with real-time traffic data to obtain an alternate route, supposedly so you could bypass the jam? Did you find out that every other modern car had the same technology and got the same "hints", leading to a new jam at the bypass route? Another form of Predictive Analytics at work, with undesired outcome.

So isn't the whole intent of a Business Intelligence or Analytics initiative to get ahead of the competition?
But what if everybody leverages the same set of methodologies and tools? Won't we have similar situations as described above?

Since businesses are run by people, for people, they are a social system. And social systems are reflexive, they adapt their behavior based on what they think might happen. Any broadly spread analytical predictions following similar patterns are bound to alter the very future they attempt to predict.

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